BEIRUT: Last Sunday's deadly clashes in the southern suburbs of Beirut have drawn the army into a political firestorm and made it the focus of suspicion among some groups, complicating efforts to resolve the country's political crisis with the election of a consensus president, analysts told The Daily Star on Thursday.
Osama Safa, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, said the riots had altered the relationship between a segment of the population and the army, adding that trust between the two had been broken. "But the army can repair that trust with swift and credible investigations," he added.
"The events last Sunday were not entirely innocent, someone worked to draw the army into a trap. The army will have to work very very hard on restoring trust but it will be given another chance," Safa said.
Safa also said that the alliance between Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement had emerged from the events relatively unscathed - at least politically. However, he added that inter-sectarian relations in general have been "shaken," and "it will be up to the leadership to handle the situation delicately."
He added that the results of the investigation will put many unfounded hypotheses and speculations to rest.
Safa pointed out that since the events of last Sunday remain fresh in many people's minds, the current situation is fragile and could be exploited to provoke further escalation. He added that this possibility is all the more likely if last Sunday's events were aimed at scuttling the election of LAF commander General Michel Suleiman as president.
"It is really up to our leaders - if they are wise enough to know that it is in no one's interest to make the army their enemy," Safa added.
Retired General and political science professor Elias Hanna said that by paralyzing the army's freedom to act with "investigations and counter investigations" there is a very real danger that security in the country would be at risk.
"No one knows what environment the soldier was working under, why he shot and killed, or if in fact there were fifth columnists involved last Sunday," Hanna said.
He added that the results of the investigation - and whether they are exploited politically - will determine how unscathed the army emerges in the end.
Hanna said that there is a party that would like to see the army remain in its barracks.
"The opposition does not want a strong army," he said.
Hanna said that it takes a lot of provocation on the part of protesters to push the army to even fire a few warning shots into the air.
"Of course relations have been affected, from the sectarian point of view, several people were killed," he said. "Amal and Hizbullah both made it clear that there are accounts to settle. But the question is what level [of justice] will satisfy them in the judicial and legal sense [and allow them] to overcome these events?"
The retired general pointed out that a price will have to be paid by the perpetrators, explaining that among those detained pending investigations are two army officers. "The question is how will it be exploited and how high the price will be. There needs to be a balance between protecting soldiers' morale, preserving the image of the army and satisfying victims' families," Hanna said.
Hanna said that Sunday's events could push to the fore a "silent majority" that rejects both main political tracks in the country. He said that in Ain al-Rummaneh, 50 percent of people are neither with Lebanese Forces boss Samir Geagea nor with Change and Reform Bloc leader MP Michel.
Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, said the army could have better managed the situation last Sunday. "Something went wrong; the army started shooting and the opposition is upset. The opposition may have staged the protests, but not the shootings," Salem said. "The army mismanaged the situation and made their position very difficult."
He said that as the investigation is in the hands of the army it is up to them to come up with "convincing results."
"I do not think what happened was intentional on the part of the army command, either something went wrong or there were elements not under the army's control, but nonetheless the opposition is using it to attack Suleiman's candidacy and the army in general," Salem added.
He added that Suleiman's candidacy had been in trouble from the start, as the opposition effectively blocked his election by placing conditions on holding presidential elections.
"It seems someone does not want the army or security forces to take over," Salem said.
Prosecutor questioning dozens
BEIRUT: Dozens of people, including military personnel, are being questioning over riots that left eight people dead in Beirut, prompting fears of civil war, military prosecutor Jean Fahd told AFP Thursday.
"I am still questioning people, both civilians and military, but no one has been formally arrested," Fahd said.
The military prosecutor added that 23 civilians had been detained as part of a probe "I expect to wrap up ... tomorrow or the day after. It's a matter of days, not weeks."
Nine people, all of them Shiite Muslims, were killed by gunfire when protests Sunday over power cuts turned violent across most of Beirut's southern suburbs.
Two of the victims were members of Hizbullah and two more from Amal. The two groups form the backbone of Lebanon's Syrian-backed opposition.
Hizbullah has urged the army to swiftly bring to justice those responsible for the bloodshed, saying it was the only way to contain public anger. Other opposition figures have squarely blamed the army for the shooting.
Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces General Michel Suleiman promised a transparent investigation during condolence visits to Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Amal leader Speaker Nabih Berri.
Suleiman is a presidential frontrunner in Lebanon, which has been without a head of state since midnight on November 23 amid fierce bickering between the opposition and the Western-backed ruling coalition.
Many analysts say the riots have strained the army's ties with Hizbullah and undermined Suleiman's chances to be elected as the country's next president. - AFP
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